Prediction and validation of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Serbia and its projection to 2080.

Animal and human dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, being one of the most important diseases in Europe. In Serbia, there are extensive studies reporting the presence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens, mainly in the north of the country, where the human population is concentrated and where there is a presence of culicid mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has proven to be a very good tool to predict the appearance of parasitosis in very diverse areas, with distant orography and climatologies at a local, continental, and global level. Taking these factors into account, the objective of this study was to develop an environmental model for Serbia that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for the risk of infection with Dirofilaria spp. with which the predictive power of existing studies is improved. A wide set of variables related to the transmission of the parasite were used. The potential number of generations of D. immitis and the ecological niche modeling method (ENM) were used to estimate the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens. The highest probability of infection risk was located in the north of the country, and the lowest in the southern regions, where there is more orographic relief and less human activity. The model was corroborated with the location of D. immitis-infected dogs, with 89.28% of the country having a high probability of infection. In addition, it was observed that the percentage of territory with optimal habitat for Culex spp. will increase significantly between now and 2080. This new model can be used as a tool in the control and prevention of heartworm disease in Serbia, due to its high predictive power, and will serve to alert veterinary and health personnel of the presence of the disease in the animal and human population, respectively.

Ecological niche modeling analysis (Cx. pipiens), potential risk and projection of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Greece.

Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.

Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios.

Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km2. The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (ß ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.

Enhancing monitoring and transboundary collaboration for conserving migratory species under global change: The priority case of the red kite.

Calls for urgent action to conserve biodiversity under global change are increasing, and conservation of migratory species in this context poses special challenges. In the last two decades the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) has provided a framework for several subsidiary instruments including action plans for migratory bird species, but the effectiveness and transferability of these plans remain unclear. Such laws and policies have been credited with positive outcomes for the conservation of migratory species, but the lack of international coordination and on-ground implementation pose major challenges. While research on migratory populations has received growing attention, considerably less emphasis has been given to integrating ecological information throughout the annual cycle for examining strategies to conserve migratory species at multiple scales in the face of global change. We fill this gap through a case study examining the ecological status and conservation of a migratory raptor and facultative scavenger, the red kite (Milvus milvus), whose current breeding range is limited to Europe and is associated with agricultural landscapes and restricted to the temperate zone. Based on our review, conservation actions have been successful at recovering red kite populations within certain regions. Populations however remain depleted along the southern-most edge of the geographic range where many migratory red kites from northern strongholds overwinter. This led us to a forward-looking and integrated strategy that emphasizes international coordination involving researchers and conservation practitioners to enhance the science-policy-action interface. We identify and explore key issues for conserving the red kite under global change, including enhancing conservation actions within and outside protected areas, recovering depleted populations, accounting for climate change, and transboundary coordination in adaptive conservation and management actions. The integrated conservation strategy is sufficiently general such that it can be adapted to inform conservation of other highly mobile species subject to global change.

Serological Survey of Canine Vector-Borne Infections in North-Center Spain.

Various factors are currently causing an increase in vector-borne parasitic diseases at a global scale; among them, some stand out, such as climatic disturbances derived from global change, the increase in movements of reservoir animals, or changes in land made by human activity. In the European continent, there have been an increasing number of epidemiological studies focused on the detection of these diseases, especially in dogs. In Spain, there are few epidemiological studies focused on the evaluation of the biotic and abiotic factors that may influence the distribution, such as climatic zones, orography, or presence of water reservoirs. The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and distribution of several canine vector-borne diseases caused by Dirofilaria immitis, Leishmania infantum, Anaplasma platys, and Ehrlichia canis in the autonomous community of Castilla y León, the largest region of the Iberian Peninsula, providing a geospatial approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Blood from a total of 1,475 domestic dogs from the nine provinces of Castilla y León were analyzed. Also, a GIS analysis of the sample locations was carried out, taking into account the most important predictor variables. The prevalence in dogs infected by D. immitis was 7.19%, and the seroprevalence by L. infantum was 4.61 and 1.56% for A. platys and E. canis. Most of the infected animals were located in areas with stagnant water, irrigated agriculture, or riverbanks, always close to forest and woodland vegetation. These results indicate that dogs living in Castilla y León should take prophylactic measures to avoid infections.

Angiostrongylus vasorum in Domestic Dogs in Castilla y León, Iberian Peninsula, Spain.

Angiostrongylus vasorum is the causative agent of canine angiostrongylosis, a disease affecting domestic and wild canids. In Europe, it is an emerging disease, mainly reported in red foxes. In Spain, there are a few studies that address the prevalence and pathology of this disease. Castilla y León is the largest region of the Iberian Peninsula, whose extensive area is 94,224 km2; however, until now, there have been no epidemiological studies on this disease. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the presence of antigens of A. vasorum in 1475 dogs from Castilla y León, showing an overall prevalence of 0.75%. The infected dogs were mainly outdoors, guard and hunting breed dogs and living in locations with mild climates close to areas of high edaphic humidity, such as stagnant water, irrigated crops or riverbanks, with the vegetation dominated by alders, holm oak and gall oak forests, where the intermediate hosts develop. It is necessary to carry out more in-depth studies on the epidemiology and pathology of this disease in Spain and Europe in order to carry out efficient control in both domestic and wild animals.